There is no more time for playing around now that Manchester City stands six points behind their city rivals, and this visit to Newcastle is of critical importance. At a first glance it appears that the hosts are not going to cause them any problems as they have lost 9 out of the last 10 games. Furthermore, City has twice as many points this season and competes for the title, while Newcastle struggles to return to the first half of the tables. Bookmakers have embraced the idea and are suggesting that the visitors should achieve an easy win, by offering odds of 1.61.

While it is hard to deny their favorites status, there is simply no value in these odds and punters are hard pressed to find a better type of bet. One that stands out from the crowd is the Over 2.5 goals bet, which is valued at 1.70 by Bet365 and is quite easy to justify. For starters, the average number of goals scored between the two teams in the last 8 games is a massive 4, so there is plenty of room for error. Even if the host will be at full strength, Manchester City would easily keep them under pressure for the entire 90 minutes, but Newcastle misses no less than six players.

Even though not all of them play a critical role in Pardew’s squad, the fact that most of them come from the defensive area is worrisome. On the other hand, the visitors are also trying to replace three defenders on short notice and this would only aggravate their defensive woes. We have plenty of reasons to predict a high scoring game, and since the odds are superior to those offered for a straight victory, punters would be right to choose the Over 2.5 bet.

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